Hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah rose peculiarly this week, even as missile exchanges decreased.
During the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha, the intense exchange of fire was replaced with a fiery volley of threats, spotlighting the path to war through the familiar drumbeat of deterrence.
On Wednesday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened to invade northern Israel if a full-scale war erupted. He mentioned that Hezbollah had “new weapons” to be deployed on the battlefield but emphasized that the group did not seek a full-scale war with Israel, viewing its involvement as support for its Hamas ally in Gaza.
On Tuesday, Hezbollah released drone footage of Haifa, a northern Israeli city, highlighting key military and civilian sites. This was widely interpreted as a veiled threat to Israel to avoid escalating the conflict, as a lethal strike on Haifa could trigger all-out war. Nasrallah described this as part of Hezbollah’s “psychological warfare” against its enemy.
Following the video’s release, Israel’s Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, stated that the country was “very close to the moment of decision to change the rules against Hezbollah and Lebanon.” He warned that in an all-out war, “Hezbollah will be destroyed, and Lebanon will be severely hit.” Israel’s military confirmed that operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon had been “approved and validated.”
Despite the escalating tensions, there is a widely held view that neither Israel nor Hezbollah wants to trigger a war right now. Such a conflict between two well-armed enemies would risk devastating millions of people on both sides of the border and potentially draw in Hezbollah’s backer, Iran, and the US, Israel’s key ally.
However, the line between deterrence and the desire for war is becoming increasingly blurred.
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