Thursday brings an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southern High Plains. This is accompanied by a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains and Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday, extending into the Central/Southern High Plains on Saturday.
There’s also a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across the Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday/Friday, shifting to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast on Saturday.
A front stretching from the Northern Plains to the Southern High Plains will gradually progress to the Upper Mississippi Valley before stalling by Friday evening, eventually dissipating on Saturday. This, along with moisture influx and a dryline in western Texas, will spur showers and severe thunderstorms in the Southern High Plains, prompting the issuance of an Enhanced Risk. The main threats include lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, there’s a risk of severe thunderstorm wind gusts exceeding 65 knots and hail measuring two inches or more.
Heavy rain from these thunderstorms poses a risk of flash flooding in localized areas, particularly in urban zones, along roads, small streams, and low-lying regions.
On Friday, the aforementioned front will trigger showers and severe thunderstorms in the Central/Southern High Plains and Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley, warranting Slight Risk classifications. This continues into Saturday, with a Slight Risk extended to the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and Central High Plains, accompanied by a risk of excessive rainfall in the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley.
Meanwhile, another front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. In the Pacific Northwest, a front moving onshore will generate rain, extending into the Northern Rockies/Great Basin by Saturday evening.
Additionally, an upper-level ridging over southern Texas will result in Heat Advisories for the region.
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