Never was there a more clear-cut case of “commentator’s curse” than when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was inaugurated on a sunny Kyiv day exactly five years ago.
The TV narrator’s inference was that, after a landslide election victory with 73% of the vote, it could only go downhill for him.
While his approval ratings have inevitably waned, Volodymyr Zelensky has managed to maintain his appeal and harness a desire for stability to extend his term in office.
In peacetime, his term would have expired, prompting an election. However, martial law enacted due to Russia’s full-scale invasion has precluded this, with broad public support for postponing elections.
“For the Ukrainians, the priority is to win the war and then have an election,” explains Anton Hrushetskyi, head of Kyiv’s International Institute of Sociology. “Therefore, they don’t question the legitimacy of Zelensky.”
Moscow, unsurprisingly, has challenged this legitimacy, but it would also exploit a mid-war election to scrutinize Ukraine’s wartime leader.
“We see these narratives from Russia and how it tries to impose on Western minds the thought that Ukraine is not a democracy,” Anton adds.
Despite a peak approval rating of 90% following the invasion, around 65% of Ukrainians still trust President Zelensky to guide them through these times.
Practical hurdles to holding an election are immense: Russia occupies a fifth of the country, seven million Ukrainians live abroad, and hundreds of thousands of soldiers are on the front lines.
“There is no alternative president,” states renowned Ukrainian author Andriy Kurkov.
A few months ago, Ukraine’s then-head of the armed forces, Valeriy Zaluzhny, was considered a potential rival to Zelensky. However, after being sacked and appointed as the country’s ambassador to the UK, Zaluzhny has remained politically quiet.
“To become president in a show business manner and then find yourself in the middle of a war, there is nothing easy or funny about it,” says Andriy.
Back in 2022, after the Russian invasion, the author likened Ukraine’s leader to James Bond when Zelensky turned down offers to evacuate and championed his country’s cause. So, does he feel the same now?
“He looks like a very tired James Bond,” Andriy comments. “Much older, and a bit grumpy.”
“Even if we had elections tomorrow, it would be Zelensky again. Only at the end of the war will attitudes change, and people will ask questions they’ve been saving for peacetime.”
Andriy believes the president’s continued support is fueled by a desire for stability, despite some frustrations.